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Maximizing the Value of Correlational Studies of War

David Dessler

· Studies of War
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For more than 32 years, David Dessler served as a professor of government studies at the College of William & Mary in Virginia. The author of regularly cited articles in peer-reviewed academic publications, David Dessler brought to his work a singular insight derived from his wide-ranging background in both political science and international relations. In 1991 International Studies Quarterly published his article Beyond Correlations: Toward a Causal Theory of War, which remains among his most referenced works.

The article notes that the traditional study of war has been historically limited by the personal worldviews and biases of its scholars. By comparison, the more recent academic study of war of the 1990s began to make extensive use of correlational research studies to trace the web of physical conditions, events, and human activities associated with a variety of international conflicts and aggressions. The purpose of this type of research focuses on producing a theory untainted by personal biases and anchored in scientifically reproducible evidence.

The central problem with this otherwise valuable correlational research lay in the fact that the results of these newer studies had not yet been meshed together in an empirically coherent fashion. The article points out that this lack of integration of research material resulted - at least partly - from a too-narrow epistemology and one that is incapable of establishing the firm foundation of causal theory necessary for further progress.
It goes on to argue that to establish the needed integrative causal theory, researchers will need to follow the same types of research processes standard in the natural sciences. The article provides summaries of noted examples of integrative causal reasoning in the sciences and suggests productive lines of future inquiry for the study and analysis of war. These include the concept of causation itself, as well as the challenges of squaring any view of the nature of causation with the fluid nature of human agency.